## Mathematical Modeling with Probability

Mathematical Modeling with Probability analyzes authentic decision problems in meaningful contexts that involve randomness. It uses basic probability concepts as well as probability distributions to model a wide range of scenarios that involve uncertainty. These include managing customer service phone lines, buying collision insurance, analyzing the pattern of space shuttle disasters, dealing with absenteeism, scheduling a health care clinic, and improving graduation rates. The contexts have been chosen to align with high school students’ interests and/or demonstrate the broad applicability of mathematics. Embedded in each context is some decision so that students are introduced to mathematics as a decision-making tool.

Throughout the book, students will make sense of problems, persevere in their solution, mathematically model real-world contexts, and use appropriate tools when necessary. A key aspect of this probability text is that students will simulate probabilistic situations with random number generators to develop intuition as to the nature of randomness. This textbook uses both graphing calculators and Excel to explore randomness and calculate probability distributions.

## Explore Mathematical Modeling with Algebra Contents

Chapter 1: Basic Probability and Randomness▪ Super Bowl ▪ simulate randomness ▪ customer service ▪ late newspaper ▪ absenteeism |

Chapter 2: Conditional Probability▪ mortality ▪ committees ▪ basketball free throws ▪ home and road games ▪ faulty ignitions ▪ graduation rate ▪ celiac disease |

Chapter 3: Decision Trees▪ prom location ▪ automation ▪ energy plant ▪ collision insurance |

Chapter 4: Binomial and Geometric Distributions▪ customer service ▪ incomplete newspaper ▪ absenteeism ▪ blogger ▪ customer service ▪ NASA shuttle |

Chapter 5: Poisson Distribution▪ maternity ward ▪ CSI team ▪ health care clinic |

Chapter6: Normal Distribution▪ parachute fabric ▪ battery warranty ▪ toy demand |